Looking ahead to 2025

As 2024 draws to a close, it is easy to feel anxious about what 2025 will bring.  

It has been a tough year, with growing conflict, political instability in Europe, the growth of the far right around the world, the failure to agree ambitious enough action on climate change, an uncertain future for Syria: the list goes on.  

But despite this gloom, I feel optimistic for 2025, and here’s why: 

‘Britain is back’ 

Firstly, the UK government will have the opportunity to present itself as a beacon of stability in an unstable world and demonstrate what ‘modern partnerships’ and ‘genuine respect’ really mean. The new government has declared that ‘Britain is back’ on the world stage and is taking action to make that a reality.  

David Lammy has just been to Barbados to meet Mia Mottley, champion of the Bridgetown financing agenda. During November’s COP, the UK worked with Brazil to make early emissions reductions pledges, with a view to spurring on progress from others. At UNGA in September, Keir Starmer committed his government to ‘lead again, tackling climate change, at home and internationally, and restoring our commitment to international development.’ We’ve recently seen a 40% increase in UK financing for the World Bank’s concessional arm.  

We know that a renewed partnership and a renewed offer to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is at the heart of the new government’s agenda.  

This aligns well to the work we and our members do for fairer global governance and economic justice. There is also good alignment between Keir Starmer’s statement that the ‘ international system can be better. We need it to be better.’ and our member calls for ‘an equitable and sustainable financial system that works for people, nature and the climate.’  

The key moments to look out for 

There are three key moments in 2025 where we’ll be pushing for the UK to really show up and demonstrate that it is serious about rebuilding Britian’s reputation on international development. 

Spending review 

The first is the June spending review. Partnership is hollow if it isn’t backed by resources. Right now, the UK is spending almost a third of its already much reduced ODA budget on hosting refugees and asylum seekers in the UK. Our costs per refugee are way out of whack with our allies: we spend 150% of the level of the next highest spender, Canada, and four times the average across the OECD.  

Now, it’s incredibly important that we treat asylum seekers well, and scoring this as ODA is allowed under OECD-DAC rules, but it can’t be right that we support asylum seekers here by cutting funds to the most marginalised people in other parts of the world, or by ending programmes that could help to prevent some of the conflicts that asylum seekers are fleeing from.  

The UK needs to get a grip on this spending, and fast, if it isn’t going to cut off its own ambitions for global leadership at the knees. We are already seeing ‘real’ UK aid at a 17-year low, and this new government is now the only Labour government to have cut aid relative to its Conservative predecessor. The June Spending Review will be the moment to fix that.  

UN Financing for Development Conference 

June is also the date of the second big moment for 2025: the ‘once-in-a-decade’ UN Financing for Development Conference (FFD). FFD is important because it is one of the few multilateral spaces on development finance that LMICs participate in as equals. This bigger voice means that LMIC priorities, such as debt, tax justice and the need for better rules on ODA, are high on the agenda.  

Modern partnerships would mean the UK committing to action in areas on the FFD agenda where we have an outsized role, including on the share of debt contracts issued under UK law, and our role in the global tax system. It would also mean pushing for a stronger LMIC voice in other fora, such as the creation of a new UN tax convention, and IFI governance reform.  

COP30  

Last, but absolutely not least, the Brazil-hosted COP in November will be key. At the last COP, the UK aimed to demonstrate its leadership on climate diplomacy, and we expect this to be even more visible at a COP hosted by a key G20 ally.  

And throughout the whole of 2025, we’ll be looking for the UK to step up and provide humanitarian support and help to prevent crises where they occur, including by ensuring consistency with international humanitarian law.  

Bond and our members 

What does all this mean for Bond and our members? Members are rightly focused on decolonisation and localisation, and we can demonstrate alignment between our advocacy and our programmes by going further and faster on this agenda, including through making use of Bond’s new resources. We are moving ahead fast with implementing anti-racist practice, including with our CEO anti-racism group.  

We also need to redouble our advocacy efforts and get better at talking to the public about what we do. We have a huge opportunity in the new parliament, filled with former Bond members and development champions, and Bond is doing a lot to engage these allies and ensure our members present a more coordinated and strategic front. These allies also urge us to ensure the public is on side.  

We know members are gearing up to do more public facing work, including through the upcoming Jubilee campaign on debt, plans to celebrate the anniversary of Mandela’s 2005 speech in Trafalgar Square, lobby days ahead of the spending review, and Bond’s work to convene our members around the country with their local MPs. This is all to the good, and we need more of it, as well as better collaboration with our sister networks working on environment, nature and refugees within the UK.  

So, I am optimistic. We are a strong network, and we have right on our side. We are right to call for a fairer world, a better world, a more peaceful and sustainable world.  

We are together. With 365 members (and counting), we have a much stronger voice than we have alone. And we are powerful. We have friends and allies across parliament, the media, the public and the government.  

That’s why, despite all the crises that the world faces today, I know that in 2025 we will create a better, more just and sustainable world.